Double, Double, Toil and Trouble

It’s a new year, and resolutions and predictions abound. The title above comes from Shakespeare’s Macbeth – in which the main character is an ambitious politician who receives a prophecy from three witches that he will become King of Scotland. While the play is a morality tale, the basic elements of ambition and greed can apply to some investors. And like Macbeth, some investors look to forecasts as a means of achieving financial success. I’ll share several expert predictions for 2020 and in our next post look back at some of 2019’s predictions and how they fared.  

If you believe in the “wisdom of crowds,” CNBC screened Wall Street analysts’ top picks and identified 10 stocks within the S&P 500 with predicted gains of >10% that are recommended by 80% of the analysts. 

Kiplinger’s has not one, but two lists of best stocks for 2020, found here and here. Much like a herd of migrating gazelle, I guess there is safety in numbers. If you prefer mutual funds, there’s no shortage of predictions for 2020. Motley Fool, Zack’s, and Money all have recommendations on where to invest. 

Human nature yearns for certainty, which helps explain the appeal of predictions. Unfortunately, there is no magic potion that will enable one to achieve financial success. Like Macbeth, relying on predictions often leads to less than satisfactory results.